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Abu Dhabi’s economy set for resilient growth until 2028 amid buoyant oil, non-oil sectors

Abu Dhabi’s economic growth will continue to remain resilient at 2.5% in 2025, driven by buoyant non-oil sector activity amid increased oil production, according to S&P Global Ratings. 

The growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.5% on average over 2026-2028, underpinned by still-buoyant non-hydrocarbon activity rising 3% a year.

“We expect Abu Dhabi’s oil production will increase gradually since OPEC+ quotas are partially lifted and state-owned oil producer, refiner, and distributor ADNOC increases its capacity to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 from 4.85 million bpd currently,” Giulia Filocca, Primary Credit Analyst, Dubai, S&P, wrote in the report.

Over the next few years, S&P expects the Ghasha gas and Ruwais LNG projects to significantly enhance Abu Dhabi’s gas production capacity.

According to the rating agency, the exceptional strength of the government’s balance sheet provides a buffer to counteract fiscal and external shocks.

“We expect the government will run fiscal surpluses over our forecast horizon to 2028, assuming Brent oil prices of $65 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel beyond then,” Filocca said.

She said Abu Dhabi’s fiscal buffers exceeded 300% of GDP, which underpins its creditworthiness, adding that regional tensions are anticipated to have a “limited effect on the emirate amid continued domestic stability”.

The emirate’s fiscal and external positions will remain strong over the next two years, thanks to its continued prudent policymaking and hydrocarbon sector price assumptions, Filocca stated.