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Bahrain economy projected to hit 2.8% GDP growth in 2025

Bahrain’s economy is projected to gather pace, reaching 2.8 per cent GDP growth in 2025, even with global economic headwinds, according to the latest Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) Economic Insight report, prepared by Oxford Economics.

This positive outlook aligns with the broader GCC resilience, which is forecast to experience 4pc growth, up from an estimated 1.8pc in 2024.

According to ICAEW economic adviser and Oxford Economics Middle East chief economist and managing director Scott Livermore, the GCC’s projected 4pc growth in 2025 highlights the region’s ability to withstand external pressures while advancing its diversification efforts.

On Bahrain, the report highlights the kingdom’s successful diversification efforts, with the non-oil sector contributing 86pc to overall GDP in 2024, demonstrating the country’s progress in moving away from oil dependency.

Notably, non-oil GDP growth is anticipated to reach 3.1pc in 2025, driven by strong performances in sectors like accommodation and food services, financial activities, and insurance.

The island nation’s strategic initiatives, such as the Gateway Gulf event, which secured $12 billion in deals across key sectors, underscore its commitment to diversification. Ongoing projects, including a $427 million waterfront development and the $221m Exhibition World Bahrain convention centre, operating since November 2022, are set to bolster tourism, a vital growth engine.

To attract foreign direct investment (FDI), Bahrain is establishing new industrial free zones in Muharraq, near Bahrain International Airport, targeting the foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, and garments industries. Initiatives like the Golden Licence, introduced in 2023, have already proven effective in attracting FDI into financial services, manufacturing, and technology.

While oil GDP contracted by 2.4pc in 2024, the report forecasts a 0.9pc growth in 2025, driven by the $6 billion Bapco Modernisation Programme, which aims to increase refining capacity to 400,000 barrels per day by end-2025. Bapco Energies’ successful $500m funding for the Bahrain Field Expansion and Development Programme further reinforces this positive outlook.

However, the report also notes that lower oil prices, forecasted to average $70.5 per barrel in 2025, may constrain the sector’s fiscal impact, given the kingdom’s higher breakeven price.

The GCC region’s non-energy sectors are projected to grow by 4.4pc this year, up from an estimated 3.9pc in 2024, with regional PMI data firmly in expansionary territory.

Following recent Opec+ policy shifts, oil production will gradually increase from April, boosting oil-sector growth to 3.2pc.

“Despite softer oil prices, the gradual easing of Opec+ production cuts will support energy sector growth after two years of contraction,” explained Mr Livermore.

Inflation in Bahrain is projected to rise to 2.8pc in 2025, potentially impacting consumer spending. The fiscal balance is expected to remain in deficit, with debt levels exceeding 100pc of GDP.

However, initiatives like the 15pc domestic top-up tax for multinational enterprises and a multi-year fiscal consolidation plan aim to enhance economic sustainability.

The report also acknowledges the potential impact of US trade policies, particularly under President Trump. While the US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement could strengthen economic ties, potential tariff shifts could introduce uncertainties, even as the GCC remains largely sheltered from direct tariff impacts.

The kingdom’s workforce is set to expand, driven by rising migration trends and updated UN population projections. This growth will be crucial for enhancing productivity and furthering diversification efforts across core sectors.

Commenting on the regional outlook, ICAEW head of Middle East Hanadi Khalife said: “The business landscape across the GCC continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of global economic uncertainty. We’re seeing strong investment in key sectors like tourism and infrastructure, which are creating new opportunities for growth.”