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Fitch affirms Qatar’s rating at AA, outlook stable

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar’s credit rating at “AA” with a stable outlook on expectations that public finances will strengthen on the back of higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity.

The rating also reflects the Gulf state’s GDP per capita, which is one of the highest in the world, and flexible public finance structure.

Qatar’s budget surplus is forecast to reach 3.9% of the country’s GDP this year (and 3.3% in 2026), while oil and gas revenue is anticipated to fall if the price of Brent oil will average $70 per barrel, down from $80 last year.

The debt/GDP ratio is also on track to hit 43% in 2027, down from 49% last year and 85% in 2020, as the state is expected to refinance and pay down debts.

State-owned Qatar Energy (QE) intends to ramp up its LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per year (mtpa) to 110 mtpa in 2026. Output is expected to increase further to 126 mtpa by the end of 2027 and 142 mtpa in 2030.